For the Moroccan regime, the imperative desire to seal a strategic normalization with Israel ultimately took precedence over the obsessive ambition to permanently conquer the Sahrawi territory, relegating the latter to the status of a mere diplomatic bargaining chip. This deep-seated stalemate finds its explanation in the illusory strategy of the Moroccan regime, which, beginning in late 2020, demonstrated that consolidating its strategic alliance with Tel Aviv quickly superseded the objective of definitively resolving the Western Sahara question. Despite media agitation and official narratives presented to the Moroccan public, the Sahrawi file finds itself today in the same impasse, frozen in a status of a frozen conflict and bringing the overall diplomatic situation back to its absolute starting point. Revelations by Mike Pompeo in his memoirs titled “Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love” lift the veil on the behind-the-scenes negotiations of the Abraham Accords in November 2020. During his exchanges with Donald Trump, the Moroccan power’s willingness to recognize Israel was explicitly conditioned on American reciprocity regarding the status of the autonomous territory.
The most revealing element resides in the level of strategic detachment exhibited by the American administration of the time, as Pompeo simply mentions in his narrative discussions surrounding a southern territory, without even deeming it necessary to name the country or precisely designate Western Sahara. This omission demonstrates that for Washington, it was primarily a peripheral exchange aimed at finalizing normalization with Israel, whereas the Moroccan regime traded an issue of sovereignty for a security alliance. The announcement of the 2020 American decision was nevertheless presented to Moroccan public opinion as the heavy price obtained by Rabat, namely the imminent and definitive settlement of the conflict in its favor. In reality, this diplomatic construct served as a political pill administered to the Moroccan people to gain acceptance for a rapprochement with Israel, a fundamentally unpopular choice.
Several years following this decision, the reality speaks for itself. The absence of recognition by the United Nations or the European Union and the refusal of the Sahrawi people to surrender maintain the legal status of the territory entirely unchanged, while the American promise failed to trigger the expected international ripple effect. Today, repeated statements by Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita resemble a cover-up attempt and an admission of failure rather than a victorious momentum, confirming that Morocco has returned to its territorial starting point while having consumed normalization.
A Dose of Lucidity
This reality sheds new light on current geopolitical shifts, precisely when the recent media appearance by Massad Boulos, senior advisor for Arab and African affairs to the American administration, sounds like an alarm bell and a dose of lucidity regarding the continent’s oldest colonial conflict. By stating clearly that no imminent solution is on the horizon for settling the Western Sahara file, Washington has doused the illusions of a swift resolution that certain actors attempted to enforce through diplomatic agitprop. This assessment of failure, delivered following negotiation rounds conducted between Madrid and Washington, sets the record straight and forces the international community to face reality, namely that the Sahrawi problem will be resolved neither through dictat nor through the denial of international law.
At the heart of this complex diplomatic architecture, Boulos’s statements have the merit of sweeping away the Makhzen’s sterile and recurring accusations against Algeria. By describing Algiers as a facilitating nation that cannot under any circumstances impose its will on the Sahrawi people, the American diplomat dismantles the Moroccan fable portraying Algiers as the source of the blockage. On the contrary, Algeria’s constructive role aligns with a constant pursuit of regional stability, grounded in unwavering respect for international legality and UN charters. The Polisario Front, as the legitimate and sovereign representative of its people, remains master of its choices and responses facing annexation proposals disguised as autonomy plans. This sequence occurs at an eminently critical moment, approaching a UN Security Council meeting carrying existential stakes for the future of Minurso and Sahrawi refugees. While Rabat systematically attempts to brandish the slightest resolution to legitimize its expansionist theses, the recent response by the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic at the United Nations General Assembly reiterates a fundamental legal truism, namely that the Security Council has never recognized any Moroccan sovereignty over the non-self-governing territory of Western Sahara. Any attempt to distort historical truth or transform a decolonization process into a simple border dispute collides against the rock of UN doctrine, as the right to self-determination is neither negotiable nor subject to a statute of limitations. More than ever, the Sahrawi question remains a decisive test for the credibility of the UN framework. The persistence of this status quo ante, fueled by the obstructionism of occupying powers and short-term geopolitical calculations, poses a lasting threat to peace and security across the entire North African region.